No, they didn't
Last Edit: royscho 11:57 pm EST 01/05/25
Posted by: royscho 11:54 pm EST 01/05/25
In reply to: re: I wonder how much of that $150m - dlittle 07:38 pm EST 01/05/25

Both movies cost $300M together. The cost was arbitrarily split for book keeping.

Each movie marketing is estimated to be at $150M, so again, marketing for both movies is around $300M. (This is the general estimate but no one other Universal marketing knows for sure.)

So, the cost of producing and marketing both movies is roughly $600M.

The rule of thumb is 50% of box office goes to the distributor (Universal/investors) and 50% goes to the exhibitor (movie chains like AMC). It's sometimes less than 50% for the distributor in some international markets (China is notoriously bad for distributors in terms of percentage - only 25% of the gross goes to the distributor) but the easiest math (that will be close enough) is 50% of world wide box office.

So, for Universal to recoup the project during its theatrical release ("rentals"), both movies need to pull in about 1.2B - which seems pretty likely right now, but it hasn't happen yet.

Of course, theatrical rentals are not the only source of revenue - there are home videos, merch, secondary rentals (like airlines), album sales/streaming, and of course - streaming and TV rights, which keep generating tones of money for decades for successful movies. So, I have no doubt this project will be incredibly lucrative for Universal, but they have not recouped yet, based on box office performance alone.

Also, since they own the rights and have the relationship... I imagine it's only a matter of time before Universal exploits the IP for non-musicalized projects. They have four Wicked-universe books to draw from, and the IP of Wicked is now way more valuable given this movie's success. It can become a tentpole franchise like Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings and others, if Universal mines it properly. It can become a series of movies, Peacock event series (Like MAX's upcoming Harry Potter series), park attractions, animated spin-off... you name it.
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